洗濕個頭

2009/08/23

拍賣廿蚊紙乙張。底價一蚊,每口叫價一蚊。正常規矩,價高者得,並付最高價。唯第二高價者亦需付其叫價,然而一無所得。

問最佳競投策略。

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11 回應 to “洗濕個頭”

  1. Justin Says:

    i should make this clear.

    it is an open auction. the auction goes until no one bid anymore. So one may have to bid multiple time (each time with an increased bid) to win.

  2. 怒火眼睛 Says:

    http://anyall.org/blog/2007/09/dollar-auction/

    一睇即刻覺得好熟, 咁搞法, 最佳手段梗係坐山觀虎鬥, 或曰, 買定花生等睇戲啦.

  3. 大傻 Says:

    完全玩唔過,除非肯定沒有人爭.

  4. wiwiana Says:

    I GUESS the optimal bid is $19. Then no one should bother to make another bid at $20 to get $20 (assuming bidders are rational – it should be a valid assumption because there won’t be any “optimal strategy" if people are not rational). Then the bidder can get the $20 note by paying $19 only. Any bid lower than $19 would leave profit-making opportunities for the next bidder which can’t be an equilibrium.

  5. tintinbright Says:

    Hi Wiwiana,

    這世界損人不利己者比比皆是, when your bid is $19, the one who bids $20 lose nothing, but he/she can watch you fall into the victim of paying $19 and gain nothing (and most probably he/she is the one who originally bid $18 ‘cos there is a total loss if he/she dont make the bid $20) …. then the interesting part really go, would you again bid $21 for $20 (lose $1 or lose $19?)

    The best strategy is not to participate in the auction AT ALL… 這說明在現實生活中, 如果大家不清楚遊戲規則 (如迷債,warrant等), 切勿亂玩.

  6. wiwiana Says:

    Hi Tintinbright,

    True. If we to take these people (who can get satisfaction by hurting others) — and I totally agree that this is a very realistic assumption, then probably there is no optimal strategy here. Or the optimal strategy is to stay away from the game unless you can collaborate with others like a Cartel and have power to control or influence the market.

  7. char Says:

    1st auction : $21
    2nd auction : $1

    lose the 1st auction and aim for the rest

    if not a repeated game, losing 1 dollar to stop the game helps the others

    損己利人/以退為進也許是最佳的競投策略

  8. lcl Says:

    Based on the (my) rational actor theory, the bidders should collude. Just bid one dollar. Let the auction runs its course, take the $20 and split the money. But then in the real world, there are a lot of irrational actors like people who actually bid early and bid often on ebay, a strategy that only drives up the price and serves and the seller and eBay.

    If one is not “allowed" to collude and must bid then I say $19 and make $1 profit again assuming rational actor i.e. no one will bid $20 to get a $20 bill. Or of course, not bid at all to avoid the irrational player.

  9. Justin Says:

    lcl:

    >> No one will bid $20 to get a $20 bill.

    Except for one case. The one who bid $18 will bid it. Coz earning $0 is better than losing $18.


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